SILTTY Companion: PSA 2 – Logical Fallacy - Spicer Capital University
Stop Investing Like They Tell You - Companion Course

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PSA 2: The Gaping Logical Fallacy with the Way Most People Invest

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Extra Credit Opportunity:

This is one of the topics about which I'm most passionate. (Could you tell?)

Because of that, I'd sincerely love to know your thoughts.

Comment & Earn

Just comment below with your thoughts on the Logical Fallacy I present in this PSA.

Whether you agree or disagree, I'd love to know why—after I see your comment and respond, you'll earn one additional credit!

After you leave your comment, come join me in PSA 3!

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  • Oliver Heintz says:

    I now suffer from severe depression due to thoughts of the US one day being similar to present day Britain. Who will take our place? China? We’re doomed!

  • Yann Rodenas says:

    Wonderful and valuable insight. Love the infographic reference; hence the importance of hedging attempting to create an all-weather portfolio!

  • James says:

    I’ve watched plenty of financial videos but nothing like the logical fallacy explain here. Keen to finish this course.

  • Nick says:

    I’m really curious where you go from here! By the same logic that you’ve presented in PSA2, it isn’t without possibility that the entire trajectory of humanity has just peaked today. In which case… no asset class would be a smart investment! You’ve got me hooked Spicer.

  • Joseph Sayers says:

    Historical data does (and should) have weight with your investment decisions, but I agree, no amount of data give 100% certainty (if it did, everyone would be invested…or not at any given point in time). So how then to still have growth in your retirement years when your risk tolerances are very low? Hoping to figure that out some day.

  • Christian Viveros says:

    Even though economic signs look good here in the US It feels like it is just of matter of time before we see another collapse. This time it may not be real estate related but something is going to change the upward trend. Any ideas anyone?

  • DutchDGI says:

    Hi Stephen,

    Great work — your Youtube channel, this website and videos — very professionally done! I found you through another YouTube blogger. Thank you for giving back and sharing your knowledge to the ‘regular Joe’, the retail investors like me! I’m also trying to help other people (mostly family, friends and colleagues) to invest for the long term.

    Regarding PSA 2 (and your overall message), I would say I understand and respect your perspective, but I’m much more positive about the stock market myself, especially the U.S. market. I’m an avid follower of Fear and Greed Trader, Jeff Miller, Dividend Sensei and Buyandhold2012 on SeekingAlpha (I saw you’re a contributor there, too, so you know what I’m talking about). Don’t fight the tape or the Fed, invest for the long term, but stay vigilant for black swan events, or at least keep a close eye on recession watch signals (e.g. George Vrba’s excellent free recession watch reports). In the Netherlands, I closely watch our national Central Statistics agency, which nice dashboards with economic signals. I trust the modern governments and central banks to protect us from devastating crashes and recessions like the Great Depression of 1931 or Japan’s situation. I believe they keep learning and improving their control.

    I don’t fear crashes, recessions and bear markets — I embrace them and eagerly await the next one! Buying the best companies when everybody is fearfully fleeing the market is the best way of making money! As you can guess, I’m a very rational and emotionless guy — whether stock prices go up or down, there are always opportunities to profit from (either selling to take profits if overvaluated or buying more if undervaluated). Only when the company’s fundamental values start to weaken it’s time to sell.

    I don’t like bonds (return is simply too low), especially with rising interest rates, and I don’t believe in precious metals or commodities (not my expertise). In a bear market everything goes down (except for short/reverse ETFs, of course) and cash is king! The only real estate is own is my own appartment and American REITs (wonderful American invention!). I like real estate — they don’t make any more land, while the world’s population keeps growing (especially in China and India).

    I have a good salary and excellent pension plan, so I don’t really need the money nor the dividend income, but I just love to make money grow and hopefully leave a nice legacy from my (grand)kids.

    Keep up the good work!

    Kind regards,
    Oscar (DutchDGI)

  • Chris Van Eaton says:

    You made a good point… governments don’t last for ever… There are no guarantees.

  • Stanley Tang says:

    I agree with your logical fallacy especially after reading your entire book too. You give nice examples to prove your simple point that there is always a chance something bad can happen. After all, history is meant to be broken, not last forever as shown by records that are broken all over the world and not just in the stock market. Thanks for creating this course!

  • Sunny KUIN says:

    Great Insight to study longer trend of history, various countries and ancient civilization as well.
    The greatest thing about this course is free and informative.

  • Mark Nearey says:

    Actually very sobering thought process, and shows the need to always consider alternative possibilities

  • Daniel Sanchez says:

    As I continue with my stock market journey, I want to get to the point where I can find an undervalued company, and then sell it when it becomes significantly over valued or even above fair value. Then I would move on to the next opportunity in the market.

  • Daniel Sanchez says:

    I don’t know whether companies can keep going up forever. But I do think this will be true until it isn’t. By Which I mean, companies have been able to innovate and earn more as consumers continue consuming. On a macro level, I think this is fulled partially by a growing consumer population. Unless something happens to slow down population growth, companies can continue growing past their all time highs every time.

  • Ryan Brach says:

    Warren Buffet made this fallacy and I now see it as that. Life is changing rapidly now, we need to be prepared.

  • Fabio L Milan says:

    That kinda fits on my long term concerns regarding the current attitude regarding the american federal debt, if the people at least were committed on at least not allowing it to increase and just kept it the same, then, over time the debt would stop being so concern and everyone would be more used to the fiscal discipline required. But I don’t see that happening.

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